Fewer USA work visas likely for Indians due to a divided Congress
President-elect Joe Biden’s proposals for immigration reform, if implemented, would benefit Indian graduate students and professionals seeking work visas and jobs in the U.S. But the chances of his proposals becoming laws are slim.
On January 5, elections will be held for two seats to the U.S. Senate from the state of Georgia. If the Republican party wins one of them – it is expected to win both - Congress will be divided. The Republicans will control the Senate – 51/100. The Democrats will continue to control the House of Representatives, though with an unexpected diminished majority, that has emboldened Republicans. .
Senate Republican are expected to block Joe Biden and his Democratic party’s ambitious agenda on most issues, including immigration policy reforms.
During his campaign, Biden pledged to completely reverse President Donald Trump’s immigration policies. Biden’s proposals, of interest to Indian emigrants: would increase the number of temporary visas for high-skilled worker visas issued each year; abolish the country-based quotas for such visas to reduce backlogs; increase the number of permanent, employment-based visas, or green cards, from the current 140,000 each year; give a green card to foreign graduates of U.S. universities, along with their Ph.D. degrees; and allow spouses and minor children of holders of temporary work visas and green cards to immigrate along with them.
President-elect Biden also wants temporary and permanent work visas for foreign Ph.D.’s, in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM), to be exempt from inclusion in any visa or country quotas. Biden says “losing these highly trained workers to foreign economies is a disservice to our own economic competitiveness.“
The Republican-controlled Senate is unlikely to pass any of these Biden proposals into laws. Republican senators agree with the immigration - and most other - laws passed by Trump.
Even if they support minor changes, Republican senators are unlikely to anger Trump by reversing any of the laws he signed. In fact, despite strong evidence of Biden winning the presidential election, only four Republican Senators have congratulated him. This is because Trump controls the Republican voting base and so can hurt their chances of being re-elected.
Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, is expected to obstruct the implementation of any of the major parts of Biden’s agenda. In the process, McConnell wants to shift blame onto Biden, and away from Trump and the Republicans. He is already obstructing Biden’s economic agenda, by offering $500 billion in new stimulus funding while the Democrats seek $2.2 trillion.
Also, McConnell is reportedly planning how his party can gain control of the House, while retaining control of the Senate, in the 2022 mid-term elections. He is likely to introduce Biden’s immigration policies in the Senate, if at all, only if they are greatly diluted and include major measures sought by Republicans.
Under pressure from their own voting base, several Democrat legislators also want limits on issuance of temporary and permanent skilled visas, This is reflected in Biden’s proposal itself. He plans, for instance, to increase the number of temporary visas only after “a wage-based allocation process” is in place, with enforcement mechanisms to ensure the issuance of skilled visas “are aligned with the labor market and not used to undermine wages.” In the case of permanent visas, he will “promote mechanisms to temporarily reduce the number of visas during times of high U.S. unemployment.”
In 2015, Jim Jefferies, president of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers USA, (IEEE), criticized H-1B skilled worker temporary visas for eliminating “U.S. high-skill, high-wage jobs, as well as the taxes and economic activity it generates." More than half of current H-1B visas are used by outsourcing companies. These firms, Jefferies said, specialize in replacing Americans with cheaper foreign labor and eventually shipping the jobs overseas.
IEEE is a professional and lobbying arm representing over 200,000 engineering, computing and technology professionals in the U.S., including many Indian Americans. It supports the green card program, which, unlike the H-1B visa, allows its holder to transfer to other jobs/any other job, thereby preventing employers from taking advantage and pushing down wages.
Perhaps the Biden administration can make it easier for permanent residents, or green card holders, to become U.S. citizens. He plans to do this in the first hundred days by passing an executive order. However, like other potential Biden executive actions, it could be ruled invalid by the Supreme Court. In October, after President Trump’s nominee Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the court, conservative judges outnumber moderates 6:3.
Since Trump became president in 2014, most Indian STEM graduates of U.S. universities, including from the top ones, are not finding work even under practical training visas, let alone regular jobs. Hence, they are finding it tough to repay $80,000 or more in student loans they borrowed from banks in India using their family/parental homes as collateral.
In recent years, very few of the top engineering graduates in India, especially from the Indian Institutes of Technology, are taking on $80,000 to $200,000 in bank loans to pursue one-or two-year advanced degrees from American universities. They realize that, with the slim odds of finding practical training and work visas after graduation, there is a very high risk of ending up with large debts.
They fear being unable to repay the loans and their family homes being taken over by the banks in India, since it was used as collateral for the loans. Instead they work for American and other multi-national companies in India for at least a few years, expecting to get transferred to lucrative foreign postings.
For 2021 and beyond, Indians considering taking on loans to study at U.S. universities should instead apply to Canadian universities. In Canada the tuition fees and costs are lower; the chances of getting a work visa and permanent residency, especially for STEM graduates, are very good; and those with advanced skills can get a permanent resident visa in four weeks. In America, assuming they find a job, Indian professionals have to wait for more than fifteen years to get a green card.
Canada faces a shortage of skilled labor and also has a population which is rapidly aging. Equally important, American companies, seeking to bypass the visa restrictions in the U.S., are expanding their operations and hiring in Canada.
Matt Turck is a partner at FirstMark Capital, an American venture capital firm managing $2.2 billion in assets. An immigrant to the U.S. from France, in June after Trump put additional restrictions on issuance of skilled visas, Turck tweeted that today, a company he founded in the U.S., “…could be started anywhere. Why would the next generation bother if they can’t get a (U.S.) visa?”