October 18, 2024

On the eve of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, most polls predicted that Hilary Clinton would win. Michael Moore, a documentary filmmaker and Clinton supporter, said that Donald Trump would win. He based his forecast on the crowds and enthusiasm he saw at Trump’s rallies, especially in his home state of Michigan and the other swing states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.   

Early this month, in a post on Substack, Moore agrees with an aggregate of top polls which show that, on November 5, “Harris will defeat Trump in the Electoral College count by 270 to 268.”

The recent rise in bank and other stocks, whose businesses will benefit from deregulation, the rise in gold and crypto prices and other indicators show that U.S. financial markets are “very convinced” that Trump will win, Stan Druckenmiller said in a Bloomberg interview last week. One of the most successful hedge fund managers, he stated that financial markets are a more accurate indicator of election outcomes than polls, as was the case with Ronald Reagen’s first presidential win in 1980. Based in New York, Druckenmiller said he was not going to vote for either Harris, because of her economic policies, or Trump, because of his character.

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