COVID-19 wipes away global progress on poverty and disease
The 1918 influenza pandemic in India was a set of mutually exacerbating catastrophes. In the blink of an eye, a health crisis became an economic crisis, a food crisis, a housing crisis, a political crisis. “Everything collided with everything else,” note Bill and Melinda Gates.
Today COVID-19 is triggering a similar series of colliding catastrophes around the globe, the Gates’ point out in their Gates Foundation’s 2020 Goalkeepers Report, which was released this week.
Bill Gates, who co-founded Microsoft, has an estimated net worth of $115 billion. He now devotes his time to running his foundation which funds development and distribution of vaccines and drugs to cure malaria, tuberculosis and other major diseases and to improve access and the quality of school education around the globe.
COVID-19 cases are rising sharply and uncontrollably in India. Also, a reliable vaccine that is widely available, especially in India, is at least a year away. So, the country’s challenges in tackling health issues and poverty, especially for women and children, will widen and deepen, the Gates report implies. Already, with over 5.1 million cases, India has the second largest number of virus infections, after the U.S. It has the third highest number of COVID deaths, over 83,000, after the U.S. and Brazil.
While governments and central banks have already spent $18 trillion to stimulate economies, the global economy will lose US$12 trillion, or more, by the end of 2021. The current recession is the worst since the end of World War II, the report states.
The economic crisis is far more severe in the third world countries. The U.S., European Union and other wealthy countries have spent an average of about 22 percent of their GDP on economic stimulus measures. In sharp contrast, among the sub-Saharan African countries for instance, that average is just 3 percent. As a result of lower spending, the recession is much more severe in the region as well as in other third world countries.
Since March this year, COVID-19 has pushed 37 million people in India and other third world countries into extreme poverty – earning less than $1.90 (Rs.143) a day. This sudden 7 percent rise ends a 20-year streak of economic progress, the report notes. in these countries, those pushed into poverty – earning less than $3.20 (Rs.240) - has spiked up by 68 million this year.
“Falling below the poverty line” is an euphemism, though, the Gates’ say. “What it means is having to scratch and claw every single moment just to keep your family alive. These newly impoverished people are more likely to be women than men.”
This is because most women in low- and middle-income countries work in jobs that operate in now inaccessible spaces, like people’s homes and public markets. These jobs also provide less access to government financial support. Another reason is an increase in unpaid care work—like cooking, cleaning, caring for children and sick relatives—which women already do.
Indirectly, COVID will cause more women than men to suffer and die, in large part because the pandemic has disrupted health care before, during, and immediately after childbirth.
In other health areas, cases of malaria and tuberculosis were declining till last year. But they are now rising sharply since scarce resources in the third world are diverted to tackle COVID. Even under ordinary circumstances, both the malaria parasite and the mosquitoes that transmit it develop resistance to the drugs and insecticides used to fight them. “Malaria is unforgiving: As long as it exists, it will kill the most vulnerable and take advantage of emergencies,” the Gates say. If malaria is not eradicated, “every crisis will require devoting a lot of resources to avoid a big increase in preventable deaths.”
In vaccinations “we’ve been set back about 25 years in about 25 weeks,” the report notes. In 2019, over 80 percent of children around the world got vaccinated, preventing more than two million deaths. This was remarkable considering that, in the 1970s, only about 5 percent of children were vaccinated. In 2020 though, due to COVID-19, vaccination rates have fallen to the level of the 1990’s.
In some cases, these vaccinations are simply delayed, and kids can “catch up” later without much consequence. However, some infections, such as measles, spread easily, and even short-term disruptions can lead to immediate increases in illness and death.
With schools closed, hundreds of millions of students are trying to learn on their own at home, an educational catastrophe, the report points out. When schools open again, girls are less likely to return, thereby closing off opportunities for themselves and for their future children.
Turning to solutions, the Gates’ say the first priority is to control the virus. “We cannot rebuild health systems, economic systems, educational systems, and food systems—to say nothing of making them better than they were when this year began—until the virus that is tearing them all down is under control.”
In the short term, unemployment and social-protection payments and emergency business loans, especially to women, can keep people from becoming extremely poor or help the poor avoid destitution. Long term, the Gates’ emphasize that investments in human capital-like health and education-are key to generating economic growth and “creating resilient households that don’t just hover around the poverty line.”
