March 16, 2024

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his cabinet members, and government of India officials repeatedly talk about major economic successes achieved by the country since Modi first took office in 2014. They use terms and phrases such as “India Shining” and “India is the strongest economy in the World.”

Major TV, radio, and newspapers in India – as well as social media campaigns orchestrated by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and affiliated organizations - widely and favorably broadcast such official claims.  

Since last month, due to tricks played by recruiters for Vladimir Putin’s Russian army, the world is getting a glimpse of the major economic reality in India under Modi’s rule: massive, rising unemployment.

So far, at least two Indian youths have been killed while forced to fight for the Russian army, as Putin attempts to take over Ukraine. 

Hemil Mangukiya and Mohammed Asfan were among those recruited to work as “delivery boys and helpers” in the Russian army. Mangukiya was a 23-year-old embroiderer from Gujarat, Modi’s home state, while Asfan, 30-years-old, a former employee at a clothing store in Hyderabad, had a wife and two children, both under the age of two.

It was only after they reached Russia that they realized they were “being trained to fight," relatives told the media. Their bodies were brought back to India last month.

The recruiters for the Russian army worked out of Delhi, Mumbai, Dubai, and other locations, using YouTube and social media posts to lure recruits. The recruits were promised several multiples of salaries in India and Russian permanent residence visas after six months.

Nearly a quarter of Indians between the ages of 15 to 25, or more than 80 million, are unemployed, according to World Bank estimates. The age group accounts for more than 250 million people, or nearly one out of five among India’s 1.4 billion population.

In April 2023, 650,000 applied for 8,000 jobs in the police force in Maharashtra state. The police had to be called in to control thousands of applicants who gathered in Mumbai, the state capital. In 2018, 25 million applied for 90,000 positions – more than 250 applicants for each job - in the Indian Railways.

The odds of finding a job are far worse for those who are unskilled and less educated. In 2022, for instance, over 8,000 youths applied for a single post of a messenger at a university in South India.

Overall, more than 8% of India’s labor force is unemployed – nearly 10% in urban areas - according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private research firm based in Mumbai. Data issued by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is rosier but is viewed “as outdated and inadequate,” according to Bloomberg.

Worse, India’s overall labor participation rate – the percentage of the population which is working or actively looking for work - is around 40%, down from 46% in 2016, as millions of people who could not find jobs have stopped looking for them. The labor participation rate in neighboring Bangladesh, which in the 1970’s was written off as a basket case facing economic disaster, is 59%.  

The hidden unemployment is far more severe in the case of women in India: their labor partiipcation rate is 24%, down from 31% in 2000, according to The World Bank. Women in Saudi Arabia have a higher participation rate. In fact, the proportion of women in jobs or looking for jobs in India is among the 12 lowest in the World, similar to that in Afghanistan and Somalia.

Overall, including the hidden unemployment, more than 200 million are unemployed in India – roughly the entire population of Brazil. Mllions more are semi-employed, including in part time jobs as cooks and cleaners in middle-and upper-class homes.

The rising unemployment, as a Reuters report noted, underlines “the challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces in providing millions of jobs.” It also has “the potential for social unrest,” as Bloomberg noted.

Indeed, the anger of the youths, over not finding jobs and being unable to support themselves and their families, has often boiled over into protests against Modi’s government. In June 2022, for instance, millions took part in protests across India after the government sought to reduce the length of service – from 17 years to four years - as well as the number of recruits for the army, navy, and air force. The defense department is one of the major employers, employing around three million Indians.  

Protesters blocked highways and trains for days in many states. In north India, where many of the states are ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, protesters burned down some party offices.    

So far, reportedly based on social media posts by some recruits. about 100 Indians from Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal have been identified as being recruited for the Russian army, The numbers may be larger since Russian supervisors likely confiscate the cellphones of the recruits, especially since the recruits are publicizing their being forced to fight.

Several Indian men, in videos posted on social media, say they were in Russia on tourist visas but were forced to join the army or face 10 years' imprisonment. They have sought the government of India’s help to be freed and safely return to India.  

Last month, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement that cases bought to the attention of the ministry and “the Indian Embassy in Moscow has been strongly taken up with the Russian authorities…Several Indians have already been discharged as a result.”

So far, Modi’s government has not condemned Russia for recruiting Indians for its army. His government though has launched criminal cases against recruiters in India.

Modi has close ties to Putin. He has yet to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India is also ignoring Western sanctions to buy crude oil from Russia at a big discount to world market prices.

India’s intelligence agencies likely informed Modi’s government about Indians being tricked to fight for the Russian army. If so, why did the government stay silent? It appears that the government responded only after media around the world reported about the first death of an Indian recruit forced to fight for Russia in Ukraine.

Putin obviously has no conscience about tricking poor, unemployed Indians to fight for his army. Will he continue to recruit Indians, knowing that some have no means to support their families and may be desperate enough to fight for the Russian army?

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